The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Unknown, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Category: Education

Tags: Education

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we dontand, most importantly, cantknow. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong., Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but its something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt., The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the millionaire next door, when unrepeatable chan